The club will need to fill in around the edges, particularly in the bullpen, to be more competitive in 2022 before making more substantial investments in core players down the road. Payroll was down about $45M from its 2018 peak, with attendance down over 50% over a similar time frame. OFFSEASON FOCUSĮxpect the club to largely sit out this off-season’s free agent proceedings. Overall, I consider the D’backs system to be slightly better than average, with quality depth but lesser than average star power. The club’s Double-A rotation was deep, featuring prospects Brandon Pfaadt, Drew Jameson and Ryne Nelson. 369-.434-.658 after a late-season promotion to Triple-A, and would seem to be in contention for a spot on the opening day roster, likely in right field.ĭaulton Varsho is a multi-positional type who has been slow to claim a regular MLB role, but he’ll get another shot in 2022ĥ’11” righty starter Humberto Castellanos got a late season audition in Phoenix, and might again contend for a back-of-the-rotation spot. OF Alek Thomas is the name to watch here. His command has been borderline elite in that past - its return to that level with better health could propel him into Cy Young consideration. He was incredibly unlucky on grounders (.250 AVG-.297 SLG, 162 Unadjusted Grounder Contact Score vs. My batted ball-based numbers give him a “Tru” ERA- of 87, much better than his 101 ERA- and 102 FIP. The traditional numbers say Gallen was 4-10, 4.30 in 2021. Marte hits his fly balls, liners and grounders well harder than league average, his fly ball rate has plenty of room to grow, and is a quality baserunner who will take the extra base, though not a notable stolen base threat. They are still legitimate foundational players that can be built around, no matter what the numbers say. Their two remaining marquee players, Marte and Gallen, missed substantial portions of the season. The bullpen was non-existent, as the theory of replacement level was tested on a repeated basis.īeyond all that, the club was unlucky. SS Nick Ahmed regressed with the bat, and David Peralta was, well, David Peralta. Walker and Escobar took some steps backward, with the latter dealt to the Brewers at midseason. They did little, hoping that a disappointing 2020 was little more than a mirage. The Diamondbacks’ approach heading into the 2021 season was decidedly phlegmatic. And perhaps most frustrating of all, they were unable to get Ray over the hump as a major league starter, and instead watched helplessly as he immediately blossomed as a Blue Jay in 2021. The players acquired in the Greinke trade were attractive in part because they were considered to be close to major league-ready - and they’re still not material factors at the MLB level. Their overall nucleus was aging and not getting better. The Diamondbacks were not a starting pitcher away from contending in 2020. They performed a fatal combination of mis-evaluating their talent and failing to develop it at the major league level. He is a central symbol of their decision-making process, however. Now, this club has done an awful lot more wrong in the recent past than signing Bumgarner. All that playoff success was a big part of the reason for their investment, but that doesn’t do a whole lot of good when you aren’t within hailing distance of October baseball. So the D’backs ponied up for a durable league average pitcher in his decline phase, though he was only 30 at the time. The post-2016 version of Bumgarner could not do so, though that reality was obscured to an extent by his pitcher-friendly home park. With an exceptional K/BB profile, you can still be an above average pitcher with fair contact management skills. He had never been a particularly good contact manager, and his performance in this area had been trending in the wrong direction (Adjusted Contact Scores of 101 in 2016, 107 in 2017-18 and 114 in 2019). From 2017-19, it was in the league average range. Through 2016, his K rate had consistently been over a full standard deviation better than league average. Problem was, Bumgarner was no longer the alpha-type starter they desired. They signed him to a back-loaded, 5-year, $85M contract. They just needed one more alpha male in their rotation, and to them, veteran Giants’ lefty Madison Bumgarner filled the bill.
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